A spell's mana value is determined only by its mana cost. Ignore any alternative costs, additional costs, cost increases, or cost reductions.
Natural Reclamation
Cascade triggers when you cast the spell, meaning that it resolves before that spell. If you end up casting the exiled card, it will go on the stack above the spell with cascade.
Due to a 2021 rules change to cascade, not only do you stop exiling cards if you exile a nonland card with lesser mana value than the spell with cascade, but the resulting spell you cast must also have lesser mana value. Previously, in cases where a card's mana value differed from the resulting spell, such as with some modal double-faced cards or cards with an Adventure, you could cast a spell with a higher mana value than the exiled card.
Magic: The Gathering · ™ & © Wizards of the Coast · Illus. Alayna Danner
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